Introduction


The Exit Cafe is dedicated to helping investors and professionals of all experience levels be more aware of changes to their risk exposure and the importance of using an intelligent exit strategy to control and act upon risk.

The editorial manager and a frequent contributor to our blog is Chuck LeBeau, an industry leader in the application of technical analysis for risk management. We hope you find our blog enjoyable, educational and valuable. Please feel free to chime in on any stories or analysis posted.

Jul 18, 2008

How to Stay Ahead of a Bear Market

How to Stay Ahead of a Bear Market
By Jeff Greenblatt | TradingMarkets.com

SmartStops comment: This article is primarily for knowledgeable technicians. The author is very heavy into using Fibonacci levels, moving averages and support and resistance to detect turning points in the markets. If you’re not interested in technical analysis then just read our excerpts which are not technical. SmartStops was intended to simplify the exit side of investing so that complicated technical analysis is not required.

Excerpts: I was watching financial news on TV the other day, and the general theme from the money managers being interviewed was to invest in stocks for the long term. One person even dared to suggest that had you invested in the stock market in August of 1929, while you may have had to wait 16 years, you ultimately would have been ahead of the game. This person may have forgotten about an event called World War II, and there's a chance that some of the people who invested in 1929 might not have been around to see the market recover.

That may seem like an extreme example, but it does raise an interesting issue. If Wall Street wants us to be invested all the time, what happens if our time frame is not in sync with the market? What if you had invested in the Dow on October 11, 2007? As of Monday, the close of the second quarter, you were down 20%. This is just not acceptable. Not only is it not acceptable, it's also unnecessary. This article will show you not only how to recognize a change in trend but also how to take advantage of it.

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