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Jul 31, 2008

We've moved from a world of risk to a world of uncertainty

Posted by SmartStops at 8:19 PM
We've moved from a world of risk to a world of uncertainty
Thomas Homer-Dixon

SmartStops comment: It is becoming increasingly difficult to recognize risk and protect against it. SmartStops can help.

Excerpt: “So the rules of the game have now changed. Our global financial system has become so complex and opaque that we've moved from a world of risk to a world of uncertainty. In a world of risk, we can judge dangers and opportunities by using the best evidence at hand to estimate the probability of a particular outcome. But in a world of uncertainty, we can't estimate probabilities, because we don't have any clear basis for making such a judgment. In fact, we might not even know what the possible outcomes are. Surprises keep coming out of the blue, because we're fundamentally ignorant of our own ignorance. We're surrounded by unknown unknowns.”

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